Dollar set for fourth monthly drop as Fed meeting looms

Tuesday,   31-Jan-2023   08:18 AM (IST)

The dollar was eyeing a fourth monthly loss on Tuesday as investors reckon a peak in U.S. interest rates could swing into view as soon as this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Currency trade was subdued in the lead up to Wednesday’s Fed rate decision, and ahead of Bank of England and European Central Bank rate decisions on Thursday, though cautiousness across financial markets lifted the greenback a little bit overnight. The euro rose as far as $1.0913 after data showed Spanish inflation running surprisingly hot in January, before the broader mood reeled it back to $1.0851. The common currency is up 1.3% this month and is loitering near a nine-month peak. The U.S. dollar index is down 1.3% for January so far, though it rose 0.3% to 102.19 overnight. The Japanese yen fell 0.4% overnight but is set for its third monthly gain as markets anticipate shifts in monetary policy. Sterling and the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars also made overnight losses but are set for monthly gains. The Aussie fell 0.7% overnight, but at $0.7060 it is up about 3.6% for the month so far. The kiwi, last at $0.6474, is up almost 2% for January. Interest-rate futures indicate market expectations for a 25 basis point (bp) hike from the Federal Reserve to take the Fed funds rate window to 4.5%-4.75%. Pricing suggests two more 25 bp hikes are expected, before cuts arrive later in the year. Ahead of the Fed, traders await Chinese manufacturing data and Australian retail sales figures later on Tuesday, as well as a preliminary reading for euro zone gross domestic product. U.S. employment cost data will also be closely watched because the labour market can guide monetary policy.